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At MVD CORP we deliver the absolute best lending experience through knowledge, communication and care. Our mission supports the growth and strength of our communities and provides a pathway to the dream of home ownership.
There are two main styles of measurement when it comes to keeping track of mortgage rates: daily and weekly. Sometimes, the differences in methodologies mean that two reputable sources can convey seemingly incongruent conclusions. Other times, both the granular and general data agree. This is one of those times. Whether we're looking at MND's daily averages or MBA's weekly survey, mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in 6 weeks by the end of last week. The drop wasn't immense, but based on today's release of MBA application data, it was enough for a small bump in refinance demand. As is constantly the case over the past several months, the scope of the mid-2024 spike in application activity is more easily understood with the benefit of additional historical context. Purchase applications are never as sensitive to rates over short time horizons. In fact, they moved down a bit last week, but the counterpoint is that the purchase index has been holding near recent highs. Here too, broader context changes the takeaway. Other details from the report: Refinances accounted for 39% of the total vs 37.1% last time FHA loans accounted for 16.2%, down a bit from 16.7% VA loans accounted for 13.3% vs 13.2% MBA recorded 30yr fixed rates at 6.97 for the week with 0.64 discount points Jumbo rates were 7.01 with 0.48 discount points
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) for December this morning. Pending sales measures the number signed purchase contracts for existing homes. As such, the index is a good early indicator for Existing Home Sales in the coming month. Pending sales dropped 5.5% from last month, which was the highest level for the index since April 2023. Sales had also been on a 4 month winning streak. In other words, sales activity remains in solid territory, in the upper middle portion of the range over the past year. As is the case with most housing-related metrics, that range is at historically low levels. Regional breakdown of monthly and (year-over-year changes): Northeast -8.1% (-1.3%) Midwest -4.9% (-6.9%) South -2.7% (-5.1%) West -10.3% (-5.1%)
Both S&P Case-Shiller and the FHFA released national home price indices this morning. In both cases, November's prices were slightly higher than expected. For the Case Shiller data, this meant that prices declined less than expected. Unlike FHFA prices, Case Shiller is NOT seasonally adjusted--something that is immediately apparent when viewing a month-to-month chart. November is frequently near the low point of any given year for price appreciation. This month's 0.1% decline is an improvement from October's 0.2% decline or the 0.3% drop from last November. Regionally, Boston and New York were top performers in November, but only NY and Chicago were over 6% year over year. As seen in the table above and the chart below, prices are easily in positive territory in year-over-year terms. The same is true for FHFA, which is seeing almost the exact same change as Case Shiller. In addition, both indices have been fairly flat in the low 4% range recently.
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